US Non-Farm Payrolls Grows Dollar or Not?.

August 3, 2018

The USD remains broadly strong at two-week highs, over its counterparts including the Chinese Yuan. Analysts are under the impression that the US Dollar Index, DXY, which measure the strength of the Dollar vs a basket of other majors is likely to remain hawkish, seen ranging from 95.12 – 95.37 ahead of today’s NFP, Non-Farm Payrolls. Which is expected to come out at 193k should the expectation be met or exceed the USD is bound to surge a bit more. Knee-jerking is highly likely.

Meanwhile, market participants are looking out for another 63 companies set to deliver their earnings report. Kraft Heinz Co,( KHC), Groupon Inc. (GRPN),  are some of the notable firms on the docket today.

Global Stocks:

Global stocks have been mixed plagued by ongoing trade tariff rhetoric. Asian Shares were mostly capped initially weighing on EU shares. However EU shares are expected to recover losses as Financial and Technology heavyweights raise prospects with a slew of upbeat reports likely to come from the UK’s Royal Bank of Scotland,(RBS) and perhaps France’s Credit Agricole,(CAGR). Will US shares are forecasted to rise in tandem with earnings releases.

  • Germany 30: Recovers from losses up 0.50% in a range of 12,562.40 – 12,615.62
  • UK100: jumped up 0.47% to trend between 7,591.75 – 7,617.50
  • Italy 40: which was gravely impacted manages to reverse losses pushing up 0.57% to range, between 21,324.44 – 21,528.94
  • France 40: Rose modestly by 0.32% recouping losses oscillating between 5,459.65 – 5,479.78


  • The EUR/USD is pinned in a downward spiral. As USD gains and further pinned down due to disappointing economic data release on the EU’s Service PMI, and Retail Sales.
  • GBP/USD sold off to the amazement of market participants who though the BOE’s rate hike would encourage a surge in value for the GBP. Mr. Carney’s caveat in the forwarding guidance did not sit well with investors. As he warned of a slower hiking cycle that initially expected linked to the Brexit. GBP/USD, was down 0.10% lingering around 1.3005 handles, range bound between 1.2976 – 1.3028.
  • USD/JPY, on the other hand, was bullish yet upside movement seems capped around the 112 handle. Support and resistance levels for the day are noted to be in the ballpark of 111.61 – 111.83. Standard deviations will be anywhere from 10-50pips.
  • AUD/USD among the odd gainers was the AUD, which rallied on the back of upbeat MoM and QoQ Retail Sales.


  • Oil Prices have been jittery lately slapped by the ongoing trade tiffs, in the latest row China has suspended imports of US WTI oil. In early EU trading hours, Oil was in a bearish state, after climbing late Thursday. Although reports claim the levels at one of the main inventories hub had receded to 4-year lows the overall inventories in the US had risen by nearly 1.5 million barrels. Perhaps one of the reasons which the Saudi’s choose to cut prices on its Arab light oil to secure more buyers. WTI Crude Oil prices are expected to correct ahead of the USD NFP and later the Baker Hughes Rig Count. WTI was seen oscillating in and out of gains between 68.53 – 69.19.
  • Gold has not been able to attain any significant uptrends as the USD Shines.

Gold spot was down 0.36 % range bound between (1,212.50 – 1,218.50). While XAU/USD remains volatile with tepid gains and losses. Ranging from 1,204.66 – 1,210.49.


Following up from yesterday’s post. The Crypto arena is contraction phase. As investors take profits. And look to riskier assets like the USD to capitalize.

BTC lost more ground down -2.77& trending from 7,282.1 – 7,605.0. It seems Bitcoin was unable to hold on to the 7500k handle. Crypto enthusiasts are ready for another downtrend before any significant surges. If Bitmex’ CEO Arthur Hayes’s reflection a few months ago. That Bitcoin could go to the 5k mark before hitting a 50k height is something traders could ponder on.

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